Zelensky has pleaded with the world to impose a no fly zone over Ukraine. NATO has steadfastly refused to take that risk.
“We can be morally justified in every measure we take to answer Russia’s invasion and yet still be utterly stupid in our actions overall, if they’re not calibrated to avoid devastating consequences.” Thomas Homer-Dixon
“Every time history repeats itself, the price goes up.“ Ronald Wright – Short history of progress
During the cold war MAD was based on a window of response that could last anywhere from 15 minutes to an hour. Now with the advent of hyper-sonic missiles that travel at ten times the speed of sound, that window could be between 0 and 10 minutes. That’s nowhere near enough time to mount a proportional response (whatever that might mean).
After the fall of the iron curtain, instead of a culture of greed and power, we could have exported a culture of citizen engagement and citizen empowerment to post Soviet Russia. But that lament won’t help us now.
Instead we would be wise to heed the advice of Homer-Dixon:
“First, we should immediately and publicly declare that we’re not pursuing regime change in Moscow. We should also declare that our sole aim is to get Russian forces to halt their invasion and withdraw from Ukraine, and that, if these things happen, all sanctions will be promptly lifted.”
“Second, as much as possible, the West must avoid the appearance of moral piling on. Our collective behaviour has resembled a global exercise in the mob shaming or cancelling of Russia. The West must supply as many weapons as possible to Ukraine’s forces as quickly as possible, but we should do it as quietly as possible.”
There is no good news in war but there are some hopeful signs. Perhaps Putin’s hold on power isn’t as strong as he thinks.
Arnold Schwarzenegger’s plea has gone viral – even in Russia.
Anonymous is a world wide network of hackers that are working to disrupt the war machine and the lies it perpetrates.
Some Russian soldiers have abandoned equipment and ammunition for the Ukrainian defenders to seize and deploy, even as they face execution if they turn back.
The Ukrainian defense forces and the citizens of Ukraine have shown incredible skill, fortitude and bravery in the face of a brutal invasion.
The Russian people (and perhaps even three cosmonauts) have stood up against this war even as their tyrannic leadership has made public discourse and the free flow of information punishable by 15 years in prison.
The challenge is that the world faces a madman (not unlike Donald Trump) with a bomb strapped to his chest that could end civilization within a matter of days. He (not unlike Trump) has persuaded a huge following and many leaders in his country that it is safer to kowtow to this bully than speak out against him.
In the end it is not bigger weapons or tougher borders that will protect us from this madness. It is our culture that sustains our collective moral compass. And while it is extra hard to accept this reality in a time of conflict, we must learn to live together as one tribe under the dome of our precious atmosphere.
The pledge to work for a New Tomorrow helps us do just that.
